OECD composite leading indicator shows stronger sign of peak in expansion
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11/10/10 - OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for August 2010 reinforce signals of slowing economic expansion already seen last month. The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.1 point in August 2010, marking the fourth month in a row that the index has shown negligible or negative growth.
The outlook given by the CLIs for Canada, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, Brazil, China and India points strongly to a downturn. Stronger signals of a peak are emerging in the United States. For Germany, Japan and Russia the CLI points to a continuation of the expansion phase.
Possible peak in the OECD area
Link to underlying data - Source: Composite Leading Indicators (Main Economic Indicators)
In July 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 3 countries (China, India, Indonesia). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised. Download further details on the change (PDF).
The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".
For a better interpretation of OECD CLI consult the following document: Interpreting OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).
The next publication of the OECD's CLI will be on 8 November 2010.