A Baird analyst said auto parts suppliers will be hurt in the short-term as consumers suspend their buying decisions because of the recalls and safety issues surrounding Toyotas.
Baird's David Leiker said Toyota problems likely "froze" consumers who were poised to buy. But Leiker told investors in a research report that the longer-term impact on demand for cars is "negligible."
He said the greatest long-term consequences of the recalls would be market share shifts, increased regulation and potential consumer fear of technology.
The analyst said to expect a modest negative impact on near-term results for suppliers.
The companies that are most vulnerable to the impacts of the recall are Gentex Corp., Johnson Controls Inc., Harman International Industries Inc., Autoliv Inc., BorgWarner Inc. and Tenneco Inc.
Gentex generates more than 10 percent of its revenue from Toyota while Johnson Controls gets about 7 percent from the Japanese carmaker. Toyota accounts for 5 percent to 7 percent of the total revenue at the other four parts makers.
Leiker said lower demand from Toyota could be offset by higher demand from other automakers as they gain market share from Toyota. He predicts consumers might buy Volkwagens, Hondas, Nissans, Hyundais and Fords instead of Toyotas.
Toyota has recalled some 8.5 million vehicles worldwide — more than 6 million in the U.S. — since last fall because of unintended acceleration problems in multiple models and braking issues in the Prius hybrid.