OECD composite leading indicators point to a possible peak in expansion
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06/08/10 - OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for June 2010 point to a possible peak in expansion. The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.1 point in June 2010.
The CLIs for France, Italy, China and India all point to below trend growth in coming months, whilst the CLI for the United Kingdom points to a peak in the pace of expansion. Stronger signs of a peak in expansion have also emerged in Brazil and Canada, and in the United States the CLI has turned negative for the first time since February 2009. The CLIs for Japan and Russia point to future slowdowns in the pace of expansion but for Germany the CLI remains relatively robust.
Possible peak in the OECD area
Link to underlying data - Source: Composite Leading Indicators (Main Economic Indicators)
In July 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 3 countries (China, India, Indonesia). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised. Download further details on the change (PDF).
The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".
For a better interpretation of OECD CLI consult the following document: Interpreting OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).
The next publication of the OECD's CLI will be on 13 September 2010.