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OECD composite leading indicators point to continued but slower expansion

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09/07/10 - OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for May 2010 continue to point to an expansion but with stronger signals of a slowing pace of growth than in last month's assessment. The CLI for the OECD area increased by 0.1 point in May 2010, the 10th consecutive monthly deceleration.

Peaks in the growth cycle have emerged in France, Italy, China and India and tentative signs of a peak are emerging in Canada, the United Kingdom and Brazil. The CLIs for Germany, Japan, the United States and Russia continue to indicate that the ongoing expansion in activity is likely to be maintained, but possibly at a slower pace.

The OECD Development Centre's new Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) for the ASEAN countries, point to a general gain in the momentum of recovery in the second quarter of 2010 (Read more).

Expansion in the OECD area

Click to access underlying data

Link to underlying data - Source: Composite Leading Indicators (Main Economic Indicators) 

In July 2010, the OECD reviewed the CLI for 3 countries (China, India, Indonesia). In doing so, some component series have been dropped or replaced. As a consequence, chronology of turning points of the CLIs as well as component series have been revised. Download further details on the change (PDF).

The methodology used to compile OECD CLIs and reference series trend is described in the following document: "OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators".

For a better interpretation of OECD CLI consult the following document: Interpreting OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).

The next publication of the OECD's CLI will be on 6 August 2010. 

Contacts

For further information, journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or news.contact@oecd.org;  others should contact the Statistics Directorate on stat.contact@oecd.org.

Link to previous news releases

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