AUSTIN, TEXAS, December 7, 20092009 marked the PV
industrys first Solar Cycle, with end-market demand shrinking 14%
Y/Y, according to the DisplaySearch Q409
Quarterly PV Cell Capacity Database & Trends
Report. The contraction was caused by changes in
Spains generous incentive policy, and was severely aggravated by
the worldwide economic crisis and tight credit markets. Excess
manufacturing capacity has helped push average PV system prices
down more than 25%. But these lower prices, diversification of the
demand base and positive incentive movement in multiple regions are
now expected to drive substantially higher demand in 2010.
Figure 1: Solar Cell End Market Demand
Source: DisplaySearch Q409
Quarterly PV Cell Capacity Database & Trends
Report
Despite the long term bright outlook for solar, 2009
demonstrated the industrys cyclicality and that it is still highly
dependent on incentives, stated
Charles Annis, DisplaySearch Vice President of Manufacturing
Research. During 2009 there has been nearly 60% over-supply in cell
capacity, which means that average fab utilization rates have only
been around 40% industry-wide. In the first half of 2009, most
solar cell manufacturers were under severe pressure and were losing
money. However, because the PV industry is so broad-based and
diverse, many of the leading producers have already returned to
profitability and are running factories at high utilization and
moving forward with expansion plans. Demand in 2H09 is proving to
be robust and setting the stage for 38% growth next year.
In 2009, solar cell manufacturing capacity will grow 56% to more
than 17 GW. Cell capacity growth is expected to slow somewhat in
2010 and 2011 as demand starts catching up to capacity.
Due to the current cell overcapacity, some companies are
shuttering older lines and delaying ramp up and new investments.
For example, Q-Cells is shutting down its first four lines in
Germany, as they are not as productive as newer fabs, and adjusting
its ramp-up at newer Malaysian lines.
This leaves Q-Cells with 836 MW of ramped capacity, so they
have slipped to fourth place in the 2009 capacity ranking behind
First Solar, Suntech and Sharp, with cell capacities of
1092 MW, 950 MW, and 870 MW, respectively.
On the other hand, many other companies clearly believe in the
long-term, high-demand growth scenario and are moving forward with
large-scale capacity projects. In Japan, Showa Shell Solar is
expected to start construction next year on a 900 MW CIGS
factory in Miyazaki, and Sharp just reiterated its plans to begin
ramping its 480 MW thin-film line in Sakai by March 2010
producing triple junction a-Si modules at 10% efficiency.
Supply/demand analysis in the Q409
Quarterly PV Cell Capacity Database & Trends
Report supports this outlook; by 2012/2013
solar cell manufacturers will likely need to be adding more
capacity in order to keep up with forecast demand. The second
edition of the
Quarterly PV Cell Capacity Database & Trends
Report has been expanded to include a
bottoms-up demand database, supply/demand analysis, and a new
section covering current events. For more information on the
report, please contact Charles Camaroto at 1.888.436.7673 or
1.516.625.2452, e-mail
contact@displaysearch.com or contact your regional
DisplaySearch office in
China, Japan, Korea or Taiwan.
About DisplaySearch
Since 1996, DisplaySearch has been recognized as a leading global
market research and consulting firm specializing in the $770
billion display supply chain, as well as the emerging
photovoltaic/solar cell industries. DisplaySearch provides trend
information, forecasts and analyses developed by a global team of
experienced analysts with extensive industry knowledge and
resources. In collaboration with the NPD Group, its parent company,
DisplaySearch uniquely offers a true, end-to-end view of the
display supply chain from materials and components to shipments of
electronic devices with displays to sales of major consumer and
commercial channels. For more information on DisplaySearch
analysts, reports and industry events, visit us at http://www.displaysearch.com/.
Read our blog at http://www.displaysearchblog.com/
and follow us on Twitter at @DisplaySearch.